Who are we?
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Some say that our nature is good - so we should not tinker with it.
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Others say that our nature is to destroy ourselves - therefore we had better change our nature.
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Still others say that our nature is to destroy ourselves, by changing our nature - then what do we do?
Thinking About the Future...
To me there are two prominent long-range "question marks" about the future of people as we progress:
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Where are we going to get enough energy so that our growing population of people
can live, in our natural environment, without too much conflict over oil and other sources?
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If we do answer Question 1 across centuries, how will we then come to co-exist with a growing population of artificial intelligence systems that overlap with our abilities?
I find it fascinating that no person has any clue where we are going with our technology, and yet it will probably impact us and our children at the most basic level.
I think about these issues part of most days, and I'm hoping to use this part of the site to distill some thoughts so I can move on to other concerns.
Pundits on the Future of AI: Some Major Players...
Many have thought long and hard about the Future of AI - who do you believe?:
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Concerned: Bill Joy, in one of the most famous essays of our time, wrote that he is worried machines will make us extinct under a number of credible scenarios.
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Optimistic: Ray Kurweil is more optimistic, and has written prolifically detailing how machines are a path to utopia.
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Concerned: Stephen Hawking believes that we need to immediately accelerate neurotechnology to avoid being taken over by machines.
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Optimistic?: Hans Moravec believes that robots will inherit the earth, but that this is a good thing.
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Optimistic: Isaac Asimov spanned a huge range of possibilities, but seemed for the most part to be optimistic about the future of people alongside AI.
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Others argue that A.I. machines are either not likely to have the emotional drive to threaten us, or that A.I. is technically impossible to begin with.
Famous Movies as Scenarios...
The topic makes for great movies, and thus our culture has turned to Hollywood to weigh in on the punditry:
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2001, A Space Odyssey describes a rise of AI for practical reasons, and then a danger triggered by a conflicting set of instructions.
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Terminator depicts a rise of AI for military reasons, and then a war triggered by a military strategy glitch.
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I, Robot is a recent hit movie in which the rise of AI occurs via consumer economics, and then a war is triggered by a glitch in the robots' interpretation of their instructions.
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AI by Kubrick and Spielberg showed AI developing as a surrogate for companionship, and then a transcendence because robots outlast people into the future.
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The Animatrix, background cartoon explanation that can be watched online for the Matrix, describes a rise of AI through economic competition, and then a war triggered by this competition.
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In contrast, Star Trek, and a host of other science fiction productions, show humans living happy, prosperous lives alongside computers, in much the same form as they are today.
Other Ideas...
Some interesting "historical" perspectives on our fate from technology:
What will happen? It is likely that this is a question of fate that will be answered in our lifetimes! Let's see how much we can predict and influence.